This year has several paths of predictions that could be made. We’re either looking at a lot of Avatar or a lot of The Hurt Locker. Being a technical marvel such as Avatar would seem to lock up all of the tech awards, but The Hurt Locker’s insane momentum at this point could prove to be too much to overcome in some categories. This is also the first time that we have to predict while taking the 10 Best Picture nominees and the ballot process (they’re using a preferential ballot) under account. We literally don’t know how things will turn out tonight and if there will be some crazy surprises do to the balloting. We shall see.
- Best Visual Effects: Avatar. Biggest lock of the ceremony.
- Best Sound Editing: Avatar. The Hurt Locker or Inglourious Basterds could spoil.
- Best Sound Mixing: Avatar. The Hurt Locker or Inglourious Basterds could spoil.
- Best Makeup: Star Trek, but with only 3 nominees, The Young Victoria or Il Divo could easily upset.
- Best Art Direction: Avatar (alt: Sherlock Holmes).
- Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria. (alt: Coco Before Chanel).
- Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind” for Crazy Heart.
- Best Original Score: Up (alt: Avatar)
- Best Editing: The Hurt Locker. Avatar or Inglourious Basterds could take it as well.
- Best Cinematography: Avatar. (Inglourious Basterds is the alternative, The Hurt Locker is a dark horse).
- Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (alt: Precious or In the Loop)
- Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds. (alt: The Hurt Locker, unfortunately)
- Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique for Precious.
- Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds.
- Best Actress: Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side. (alt: Gabourey Sidibe or Meryl Streep)
- Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Her closest competition is her ex-husband James Cameron. All signs suggest that will we see the first woman winning Best Director.
- Best Documentary: The Cove (alt: Food Inc.)
- Best Foreign Film: Un Prophete (alt: The White Ribbon or The Secrets in their Eyes)
- Best Animated Feature: Up. (alt: Fantastic Mr. Fox)
- Best Picture: Avatar. The hardest call of the year. Strong cases can be made for Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds.
Most everyone else is predicting The Hurt Locker to take Best Picture. I literally haven’t been wrong with my Best Picture predictions for the last decade. This year, I could be wrong but I’m not changing my prediction. This could be my “Crash” of the year. For those who don’t know, I called Crash’s Best Picture win long before the nominations even came out and stuck with it even though Brokeback Mountain literally won EVERYTHING prior to the Oscars. Though, to be honest, Inglourious Basterds is a lot closer to being this year’s Crash, but oh well.
And for my personal picks of the films nominated:
Best Picture: Inglourious Basterds. A surprise pick for some people as I can’t shut the hell up about Avatar. But while Avatar is an incredible film and did indeed change filmmaking forever, that will unfortunately be its undoing as it will inevitably lose it’s appeal over time as the visuals become outdated. Inglourious Basterds, to me, has the whole package … writing, directing, acting and great technical aspects. Basterds is easily the film with the largest replay value (rivaled only by In the Loop and Star Trek) and that’s the final straw in choosing it.
Best Animated Film: Fantastic Mr. Fox. Absolutely charming. Wes Anderson’s brilliant style and clever dialogue shine.
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove. So scary and real, it could pass off as a horror film.
Best Foreign Film: I have not seen all of the contenders so no pick here.
Best Director: James Cameron for Avatar. For vision and scope. For being 10 years ahead of every filmmaker. For expertly crafting action sequences that shows Michael Bay how it’s really done. For making us watch CGI characters that look like silly 10 ft. tall blue cats and making us care. Cameron dials into what the audience wants like no other director.
Best Actor: George Clooney for Up in the Air. I love Jeff Bridges to death, but I have to go with Clooney on this one. I think while you can say that he is playing himself to a degree, I would argue that’s a strength to the performance. The barrier of confidence that surrounds his character slowly breaking down is subtle, but I think it’s truly effective and relatable.
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious. It took me two viewings to really understand how incredible she is. After seeing how she is in real life, this category is no contest to me. To see such power and emotion displayed by a newcomer (who is actually so charming, excitable and funny) is rare. From the heart wrenching breakdown, to the fact that she puts so much tension on her mouth, Sidibe knows how to play the character on every level.
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds. To seem charming and affable, but to slowly wear away to reveal a greedy and confident evil laying beneath takes a hell of a performer. He is both fun and terrifying and like Heath Ledger’s Joker, you’ll always want more of him on screen.
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique. Extremely powerful performance from an unexpecting performer. Her last scene is killer.
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds. Outside of In the Loop, this has the best dialogue. But ahead of every other film of 2009, this has the best character creations. Hans Landa is a miracle of sorts.
Best Adapted Screenplay: In the Loop. For turning swearing into an art form. You’ve literally never heard anyone insulted in such colorful ways so quickly and cleverly. This is also the most quotable film of the year with such gems as “Climb the mountain of conflict? You sound like a Nazi Julie Andrews!” and “I hate hookers. Not in an aggressive way, but no, thank you”.
Best Editing: District 9. Brilliantly structured like a documentary for the beginning, then shifts to the Paul Verhoeven school of editing where they show something brutally visceral and violent, only to cut away just as your jaw drops in disbelief of what you just saw.
Best Cinematography: Inglourious Basterds. Expert framing and lighting (if the main characters have an unbearably bright light shining down on them, you know it’s Richardson). Clever camera movements such the translation sequence of the German soldier showing Pitt where the troops were hiding. Balls out iconic imagery with the GIANT LAUGHING FACE being projected onto the fire and smoke whilst laughing.
Best Art Direction: Avatar. You know you’ve done something right when the planet you’ve created is making people depressed because it’s not real. The night scenes on Pandora could have been gaudy with their neon luminescence, but instead you have something truly beautiful. Breathtaking work.
Best Costume Design: Don’t really care. Fantastic Mr. Fox would’ve been my pick, but it wasn’t nominated, of course.
Best Original Score: Fantastic Mr. Fox.
Best Original Song: The Weary Kind. The category this year sucks but luckily the right song will win. Now if only we could go back in time and give The Wrestler best song. Oh wait, IT WASN’T NOMINATED. I’m still pissed.
Best Sound Mixing and Sound Editing: I’m torn on the two sound categories. It’s almost an instinct to go with loud, but I also really like clever sound design that is unnervingly quiet and unbearably loud when it needs to be (see No Country for Old Men. Anton’s silenced shotgun still haunts me). My pick would be Inglourious Basterds for both categories, but Star Trek comes close for it’s playful inventiveness. Primary examples of why I pick Basterds: Landa eating struddle with Shosanna (the scraping fork, his quick and forceful chewing sounds ) and the climax of the film. Outstanding sound design.
Best Visual Effects: Avatar. No brainer. Best visual effects we have ever seen up to this point. And yes, I’m speaking for everyone.
